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Dollar exchange rate: three central banks will determine the further rate of the ruble 

Further ruble dynamics will largely depend on the outcome of central bank meetings at the end of July: the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the European Central Bank and the  Bank of Russia .
Fundamentally, the ruble at current levels no longer looks cheap; among the internal factors there is no support for the ruble, said Mikhail Poddubsky , chief analyst at Promsvyazbank .
In his opinion, by the end of the summer, we can expect a shift in the exchange rate of the Russian currency closer to the mark of 65 rubles per dollar. “The main factor that can change the balance of power is an even softer stance of the leading central banks with regard to further monetary rates, which may contribute to the resumption of growth in the currencies of developing countries,” said Poddubsky. At the same time in the short term, the Russian currency will move near the mark of 63 rubles per dollar, the analyst said.
As oil prices approach the psychologically important mark of $ 60 per barrel, the ruble potentially becomes more vulnerable to further decline, analysts at Nordea Bank Tatyana Evdokimova and Grigory Zhirnov indicate . At the same time, the sanctions rhetoric is still ignored by the ruble, since in fact it means maintaining the status quo under the current sanctions regime without significantly tightening it, experts state.
In their opinion, local factors will still be supported by the ruble by the approach of the peak of tax payments on July 25 and payments of large dividends from Gazprom on August 1. The range of the course of 62.5-63.5 rubles to the dollar retains its relevance at least until the outcome of the Fed meeting, consider Evdokimov and Zhirnov.

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