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Final sentence? Ruble predicted collapse 

At the end of this year, the dollar will cost 69 rubles, Yaroslav Kosaty, a currency strategist at Bank Polski, predicts. He is considered the most accurate forecaster according to Bloomberg. The ruble will collapse after reducing the key rate of the Central Bank , predicts Kosaty. Russian experts do not share the pessimism of their Western colleagues. The most accurate forecaster according to Bloomberg, currency strategist of the largest bank in Poland Bank Polski, Jaroslav Kosaty, predicted the fall of the ruble.
By the end of 2019, the dollar will cost 69 rubles, the expert is sure.
That is, over the remaining six months, the ruble may lose about 9%.
Earlier, Kosat’s most accurate among experts polled by Bloomberg predicted a rise in the ruble exchange rate in the second quarter of 2019. Now Kosaty has become a pessimist about the prospects for the Russian currency.
Rebound, still rebound and collapse
The main negative for the ruble, according to Mr. Kosaty, is the possible easing of monetary policy by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, that is, another reduction in the key rate.
The expert believes that the Central Bank will gradually lower the key rate – by 0.25 percentage points in the third and fourth quarter. It does not exclude a sharp decrease in the rate – by 0.5 percentage points.
The Bank of Russia still holds the rate at a rather high loss – 7.50% per annum, which supports the interest of foreign investors in Russian securities.
Kosaty believes that lowering the CBR rate will lead to an outflow of foreign investment in Russian federal loan bonds (OFZ). “The reduction in the key rate will cease to be sufficient to meet market expectations. The negative effects of lowering the rate by the Central Bank will be stronger than the positive ones, ”Kosomiy told Bloomberg.
The Board of Directors of the Central Bank will once again meet at a meeting on July 27. The head of the Central Bank,  Elvira Nabiullina, after the previous cut in the key rate did not rule out that the rate could still be reduced twice before the end of 2019.
Among the threats to the Russian currency, the expert also mentioned the instability in the Eurozone and the trade war between the United States and China.
Bloomberg notes that after the fall in 2018, the ruble showed “the world’s best rebound”, but at the same time, the yield of OFZ bonds plummeted. Western investors are leaving the Russian government securities. The share of foreigners who invested in OFZs reached 30% in May, at the beginning of the year their share was almost 25%.
In 2008-2009, the ruble exchange rate repeatedly fell due to the global financial crisis. In 2009, a number of jumps in the dollar exchange rate were recorded: from 23 to 36.43 rubles for $ 1.
According to experts, the reasons for such jumps were the aggravation of the global financial crisis and the growing fears about the world economy entering a recession. The weakening of the ruble again contributed to the fall in world oil prices.
Until 2014, the ruble gradually fell. In December 2014, the largest drop in the official exchange rate of the ruble against the US dollar was observed: from 50.77 rubles. for $ 1, the price jumped to almost 100 rubles. Then came a rollback to about the level at which we live now, 60-65 rubles. for $ 1.
The ruble can sleep peacefully
Russian experts polled by Gazeta.Ru mainly predict a smooth depreciation of the Russian national currency. The future of the ruble exchange rate will largely depend on external factors, says Gennady Nikolaev , an expert at the Academy of Financial and Investment Management.
“First of all, these are sanctions. The pre-election race will begin shortly, which means the topic of Russia will again be exploited by both parties. Most likely, no tough sanctions on government debt or a ban on payments in dollars will be introduced, however, the aggressive rhetoric of American politicians will put pressure on the ruble and hinder its growth, ”said Nikolayev.
Another factor that affects the ruble is the slowdown in the global economy. Everything is not so simple here: on the one hand, weak reports on China’s GDP growth were released, but quite positive in industrial production in Europe and the USA.
It is now important to understand whether the slowdown in the Chinese economy is a consequence of a trade war or is it a continuation of the trend of the last 15 years, during which GDP growth has declined annually as a result of a planned reconfiguration of the Chinese economy.
If the recession in the global economy can be avoided, then the ruble exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 63.00-64.50 per dollar and 70.55-72.00 per euro, specifies Nikolaev.
The ruble has recently strengthened very well, and this was largely due to such factors as the placement of OFZs by the  Ministry of Finance , relatively stable oil prices, good eurozone statistics, and the lack of new anti-Russian sanctions, Katya Frenkel, head of the FinInst analytical department .
“But the US Congress has returned to discussing sanctions on the state debt of the Russian Federation, in the near future we will see a slowing demand for Russian bonds from foreign investors. This, in turn, will weaken the demand for rubles, and the domestic currency will start losing ground, ”Frenkel predicts.
There is also a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy, and China is one of the largest buyers of oil. If China buys less black gold, this will lead to a decrease in quotations for all brands of oil, which will put pressure on the Russian currency.
But these topics have already been played by investors, and a turning point may be a reduction in interest rates of the US Federal Reserve . “In the classic sense of fundamental analysis, the dollar should be cheaper. Moreover, many developed countries have a loosening of monetary policy in their economies. In fact, in the quotations of the currency of developed countries there will be a “tug of war” for weakening their national currency. However, the United States is turning the economy around 180 degrees, and investors also see this. If there is no stability in the markets of developed countries, investors flee from risky assets, namely from the assets of developing countries, including the ruble, ”the expert says and does not rule out further ruble depreciation.
The ruble will continue to strengthen, objects Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at GK TeleTrade. “By the end of the year, we can well see the ruble exchange rate in the range of 58-60 rubles per dollar and 70 rubles per euro,” the expert predicts.
In his opinion, Russia, even in comparison with other emerging markets, will remain attractive to Western investors due to the high yield of OFZ. Today it is almost 7.5% per annum. In addition, OFZs have a full guarantee of such profitability by reserves of $ 0.5 trillion in growing currencies and in gold.
Fed ruble to help
The US regulator is also likely to lower interest rates by December. “As a result, the yields of American treasuries will be“ below the plinth ”, they may even shift to the region of 1.5% per annum, and the dollar will be quoted on world markets lower – relative to a basket of major world currencies. And in conditions of almost zero rates of most other central banks of the world, part of the cash flow will continue to flow to emerging markets, ”Pushkarev predicts.
The Fed’s soft policy is precisely designed to both weaken the dollar and support the stock in the medium term, at least until the US presidential elections in November 2020. Accordingly, optimism can be observed for about a year on the Russian stock market, and this is another source of external capital inflows and a ruble strengthening factor, the expert believes.
And even if the Russian Central Bank decides to lower the key rate below 7%, which is quite likely, this will not change the financial situation and the ruble will not weaken at all: interest benefits for investors will still remain too obvious and continue to play their part, adds Pushkarev.
In addition, the ruble will support the OPEC deal. Even if, due to fears of a slowdown in global demand and speculative actions, the prices “beat” for a time under $ 60 per barrel, and not to $ 70, then this scenario for the ruble will be acceptable for the ruble, the expert concludes.
The dollar at the exchange trades is now 62.7 rubles, the euro – 70.5.

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